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Why Aotearoa should be against Trump’s peace deal between Russia and Ukraine

14 May 2025

Interview by Joel Armstrong, adapted by Leilani Cardosa

Image: Wikimedia Commons

In late April, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon met with his UK counterpart, Keir Starmer, in London.

During the meeting between the two political leaders, Starmer thanked New Zealand for its “support” for its “coalition of the willing,” in aiming to safeguard a potential Trump Administration peace deal to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The deal would allow Russia to retain control of territory illegally annexed from Ukraine, including Crimea, and approximately 18% of Ukraine’s eastern territory, which it seized following its 2022 invasion. 

Trump’s plan also calls for Ukraine to abandon its sovereign right to join NATO — a key demand from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This has raised the question of whether Aotearoa should support this peace deal and what repercussions the proposal could have on Ukraine.

Professor of International Relations at the University of Otago, Robert Patman, told 95bFM’s The Wire that at the surface level, Trump’s “so-called peace deal delivers everything Putin wants”.

“... it rewards his aggression and changes borders by force, twice.”

He says that although Trump has recently started supplying military aid to Ukraine and criticised Russia’s continued missile attacks on civilian areas, this proposal concedes to nearly all of Russia’s demands.

“Trump promised peace in 24 hours if re-elected, but his method appears to involve Ukraine making all the concessions.” 

The United States has a significant influence on the conflict. While the Biden Administration offered support to Ukraine, it limited Ukraine’s access to offensive weapons. Trump’s approach, by contrast, has raised concerns globally.

Patman says if New Zealand were to align with such a peace deal, this would send a troubling message.

“Supporting Trump’s deal would suggest we’re comfortable with larger nations redrawing borders through force.” 

“That’s not only unacceptable to Ukraine and Europe, it’s dangerous for countries like New Zealand.”

New Zealand has increased its financial support for Ukraine, pledging an additional $30 million for training Ukrainian forces in partnership with the UK, reflecting a clear stance against Russian aggression.

Patman says the outcome of the Ukraine conflict could have ripple effects in the Indo-Pacific region, where China, a key Russian ally, has growing ambitions.

“If Putin is allowed to keep what he’s taken, it could embolden China, particularly regarding Taiwan, and Taiwan is crucial to New Zealand’s economy.”

He says New Zealand also has deep ties with Pacific nations, where it delivers most of its overseas aid, and that there is very little chance the country would agree to Trump’s proposal.

“We can’t afford to treat the Ukraine war as distant; what happens there will affect our region and our future.”

“I don't think New Zealand would possibly support Mr. Trump's position over Ukraine.”

Listen to the full interview