Concerns of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East
27 June, 2025
Interview and article by Sara Mckoy.
Image: Wikimedia Commons
As a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran seems to hold, concerns have been raised about the potential implications this conflict could have on nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, especially with US involvement.
This comes following Israel’s accusations that Iran is close to developing a nuclear weapon.
Built on a long history of attempted nuclear proliferation, Iran has officially denied such claims. However, many believe that preemptive strikes on Iranian military facilities by Israel and the US sought to ensure that this geopolitical rival does not join the ranks of nuclear-armed nations.
Tom Wilkinson, an International and Political Relations Doctoral Candidate at the University of Auckland, told 95bFM’s The Wire that the latest exchange of attacks is unlikely to lessen the risk of nuclear proliferation in the region.
“If [Iran] is pursuing nuclear weapons, it makes sense in terms of the logic of nuclear deterrence. They want a nuclear weapon because Israel has nuclear weapons … and the ideal of mutually assured destruction relies on parties involved in conflict both having nuclear weapons.”
He says the US' involvement in the conflict, which aimed to dissolve the tensions between Israel and Iran through military strikes, could have escalated the situation.
Despite this, Wilkinson is uncertain whether international diplomacy could be an effective approach for de-escalating nuclear proliferation.
“We have seen nations and the general global geopolitical atmosphere shifting away from the rules-based international world order that thought the United Nations was this wonderful forum for diplomacy and action.”
He says the vetoing in the Security Council of aspects of new treaties on nuclear proliferation, as well as Israel’s policy of ‘deliberate ambiguity’ around their possession of nuclear weapons, presents challenges for the international community to seek any valuable resolution relating to nuclear power.
“We’re now at this point where there are thousands of nuclear weapons in the world and you can’t put the genie back in the bottle.”
“It would be ideal if nations throughout the world came together and tried to push [nuclear] disarmament worldwide.”
Wilkinson says the main requirements to reach a point where such negotiations are possible would be a willingness for transparency from nuclear powers and a willingness to enforce sanctions from non-nuclear countries.
